Melissa 2025

DISCLAIMER This is not official information or modeling, I'm just a dude on the internet. Please follow all guidance from NOAA and your local officials.

Windfield Map

• as of 2025-10-22T08:29:10+00:00
• 100px per degree
• GWAF 0.9
• No Friction

Useful Links

• NOAA Active Cyclones
• Tropical Tidbits
• https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/220231.shtml
• https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023906.shtml?cone

Data Files

Download Zip

File List:

• MELISSA2025_100x100.csv
• MELISSA2025_100x100.png
• MELISSA2025_100x100.wld
• MELISSA2025_100x100_2025-10-22 08:29:00+00:00.jpeg

Official Advisory Discussion

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 74.0 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is forecast to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic through Friday, with locally higher amounts possible. Across eastern Jamaica, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected, also with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Friday. For Aruba, western Jamaica, and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches is expected through the same period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

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